14 October 2013

My Personal Thought on US Government Partial Shutdown

I just want to note down what my thought now so that I can check again whether my thought was really accurate after time passed.

  1. There will be a serious consequence if the US debt default eventually if both Democrat & Republican parties cannot come to the conclusion on solving the rising debt level issues FAST enough, say before 17 October 2013. If they try to delay the due date to November 2013, it only gives more time for investors to liquidate their shareholdings due to several reasons: 
    1. Year End Holidays are coming. Some of the investors do not really like to carry the fear and enjoy their long term holidays. 
    2. No more positive catalysts after US Market came to near record high of 15800 points. If the market cannot break the record high, the only trend is to go down. 
    3. Fear of QE tapering to kick off soon. The investors are now fear of the rising interest rate environment to come soon. 
  2. Even so, I am cautiously optimistic of longer term investing environment (say until 2017) as the global economy is picking up in long run, although we still see some uncertainties in Europe market & over leveraging in Emerging market. 
  3. I think the only way to make big money is to wait for a market crash (fear factor). So let's just wait and see if there is more unfavorable news to come before we can really bet big on the equity market. 

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