25 October 2012

How to predict a revenue growth?

One of the thought flash through my mind was that, we should rely on the CAPEX or Cash Flow from Investing to justify whether the company will have a strong growing power in near future. Nonetheless, we should also analyze the impact on the spike of CAPEX, particularly to those sectors which requires high depreciation as well as high CAPEX. If the speed of increasing depreciation is higher than the speed of increasing CAPEX, it means that the company is experiencing through a change of technology or the business environment, which I do not favor to.

For example, SIA is ordering more air crafts for its subsidiaries - Scoot. If the world is changing its game, means that more people is taking flight through low cost carriers, then we should treat it as a good news. Nonetheless, we should also check with the peers such as Asia X or other competitors. It can prevent us from being cheated by the management to manipulate the financial results by reporting huge CAPEX and Depreciation expenses, just to cover the fake enlarged revenue. This is the lessons I learnt it from Transmile and another company from Bursa listed company and S-Chips.

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