31 August 2011

Chip Eng Seng Update - $113 MILLION CONTRACT by HDB

AWARD OF $113 MILLION CONTRACT BY HOUSING & DEVELOPMENT BOARD FOR BUILDING WORKS AT HOUGANG NEIGHBOURHOOD 4 CONTRACT 17

The Board of Directors of Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd (the “Company”) is pleased to announce that the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary, Chip Eng Seng Contractors (1988) Pte Ltd (“CESC”), has been awarded a $113 million contract (the “Contract”) by the Housing & Development Board (“HDB”) for building works at Hougang Neighbourhood 4 Contract 17.

The Contract comprises of the construction of 5 blocks of residential buildings with 792 dwelling units, a multi-storey carpark and other community facilities. The construction period is approximately 27 months.
The Contract is not expected to have any material impact on the net tangible assets and earnings per share of the Group for the current financial year ending 31 December 2011.

None of the Directors and, to the best knowledge of the Directors, none of the substantial shareholders or controlling shareholders of the Company, has any direct or indirect interest in the transaction.

Related Posts:

30 August 2011

Iskandar Malaysia - Progress (August 2011)

There will be more infrastructures take in placed in Iskandar Malaysia area, especially Senai-Skudai zone (Premium Shopping Outlet), JB zone (KSL resort), Nusajaya area (Legoland) and other zone.

I hope that there will be more business activities conducted here. Foxconn will be going to open the factory in Senai/Skudai zone, boosting interest from another MNC to open the branches here.

With the enhancement of KTM in JB to be completed on Year 2013, citizen in JB have another choice to come to work in Singapore via Train system, with hope that the MRT system linked with Singapore MRT system to be completed by Year 2018.

I believe that this could be another Shen Zhen, if and only if Singapore can support that. More and more people will be living in IM while working in Singapore. This is because of the cheaper housing price as compared to Singapore as well as cheaper education cost (e.g. Educity in Iskandar Malaysia is another attraction in Iskandar Malaysia).

From time to time, we will see a better Malaysia that similar to Singapore if not same as it. (e.g. If we could attract Malaysia talents working in overseas to join force in Malaysia, then we will definitely see a different Malaysia).


Source from:

http://www.iskandarmalaysia.com.my/news/110818/investments-in-iskandar-hit-rm7596b-in-h1

Iskandar Malaysia attracted MYR75.96Bn in first half of year 2011.

Of this, the realised investments as of June 30 stood at RM30.47 billion, Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA) Ismail Ibrahim said.

He said of the RM75.96 billion, 60 per cent or RM45.48 billion is from local investments, while the remaining 40 per cent from foreign investments.

In a press statement, he said to date, Iskandar Malaysia's top three foreign investors are from Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

Ismail said the transformation of Iskandar Malaysia into a vibrant economic centre, come 2025, is progressing according to schedule.

He added that IRDA continues to pursue foreign investment awareness and recently had participated with the International Trade and Industry Ministry and the Malaysian Industrial Development Authority in trade missions to the UK, the US, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Brunei.

Ismail said early next month, 100 senior government officials and business leaders from Wenzhou Province, China, will visit Iskandar Malaysia to explore trade and investment opportunities.

"As we continue to reach out to the region for awareness and to woo new investors, Iskandar Malaysia, facilitated by IRDA, is the platinum sponsor of Global Entropolis@Singapore in October.

"This is the premier business leaders' event in the region, looking to offshoring their core services while discovering new ideas for wealth creation," he said.

Ismail pointed out that the RM500 million KSL Resort in Johor Baru will open for business by the end of this year.

The resort will boast a 5-star hotel with 1,000 exclusive rooms and suites, a shopping mall, an expo hall, five cinemas, as well as a Tesco outlet and other retail outlets.

29 August 2011

Free you mind so that you could get the financial freedom

Not so long ago, I discussed with my girl friend on the personal finance - how to achieve financial freedom. As I am now considered 'Half Financial Freedom', I told her that:

  • I always thinking of achieving financial freedom since I was in secondary school - Live the way that i like to live, not because of the money. So, if you could find a job that you desire, you can be considered as 'Financially Free' because you are doing the work that you love and the most interesting part is, you get the money from the things that you love to do. For example, I am now an Independent Dealer, and I finally feel that I am free, not because of the financial burden, but the 'feeling' that makes me feel very happy and 'freedom'. My life now is similar to my retired parents as my parents are doing the things they like to do, and most importantly is that, they get the award from there (e.g. My Father is now part-time reporter, and he enjoyed writing. My mother is similar to me, like to watch the stock movement every working day etc). 
  • If you could not get the job you love to do, please try to fall in love with it. Your mind freedom is more important than the financial freedom. Your mind controls how much you could earn. 


Related Posts:

28 August 2011

Risk & Return, key element in Investment?

Many people were asking me on how to differentiate investment with speculation. In my opinion, Investment is something that already take into account potential risk and return involved where speculation always look at the potential return without the risk involved.

In order to speed up the process of investment, one thing we should look at is to find out our risk & return characteristic. For example, you would think that there is one good investment opportunity for you to get a good return, do not forget about the risk involved. For example, if you like a good return such as achieving 100% return in a month, then you should also be willing to take the risk of losing 50% of your invested capital in a month.

In contrast, Benjamin and his pupils do not agree with the theory above, as they see short term volatility as the lowest priority that we should think of. Instead, we should look at the long term perspective:


  • Business Risk - Whether the company is in a good industry? Which business cycle is this industry now? 
  • Financial Risk - What is the debt level of this company now? Can company has the debt repaying power in short term and long term? 
We could only guess the possible earning growth in next 2-3 years. If only we are sure for earning growth for the next 10 years, then we should be able to sleep well every night. 

Nevertheless, you could think of a question that I always ask:

"Why someone earned money but someone loose money even if they invested in the same product/stock?"


Please let us know your view on your Investment Philosophy.

Related Posts:


27 August 2011

Will Singapore continue its growth for this half of year?


Singapore is a global city that its GDP growth mainly contributed by the export sector. Of course after with two casinos opened recently, its reliance on export sector has been reduced, but it does not mean that it can be isolated from the recent Europe and America sovereign debt crisis. 
From Chinese perspective, the recent sovereign debt crisis were mainly due to over spending of the government in western countries and lack of the debt re-paying power. U.S. has spent a lot of money in the Iraq War and they could not find out any nuclear weapons there. A lot of money spent in wealthfare and rescuing the company that too big to fail (e.g. Citibank, GM etc) caused the U.S. government keep on spending the money to save the company from bankrupt and reduce the un-employment rate that already in the sky high record.
Singapore has its own problem to solve too. PM after post-election has promised to put emphasize on getting a balance in between "Talent System" vs "Singaporean Feeling". As too many Singaporean complaint about the un-loyalty of Singapore PR (e.g. especially for those who came study in Singapore with scholarship/sponsorship from Singapore Government and could easily get a PR after stay working in Singapore for 3 years). Some of them also blame that PRs and/or foreigners are the one who push the property price to a breaking record, that even higher before the 1997 financial crisis. 
We foresee there will be more policy that Pro-Singaporean instead of Pro-Business. If the labor cost keep on rising, the competitiveness of Singapore in Lower Skill Sector could change as well. I recently just saw a news saying that Foxconn would setup a factory in Iskandar Malaysia zone. I foresee that there will be more MNCs to setup its factory in that area, as the connectivity to Singapore is so near, and they could enjoy a lower tax rate under the Foreign Direct Investment scheme. 
Last but not least , I just paste the paragraphs from Singapore Yahoo: 
Source from;: 
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/More-half-Singapore-rsg-4031833566.html?x=0
SINGAPORE, Aug 23 (Reuters) - More than half of the commercial payments made by Singapore companies were late in the second quarter of this year, adding to concerns that the economy may be falling back into recession, the Straits Times newspaper reported on Tuesday.
S
The paper cited a report by the Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau that 53.1 percent of all payments were late in the three months to June 30, up from 42.5 percent in the previous quarter.
Less than 40 percent of transactions were paid for promptly, the lowest level since the agency introduced the report in 2007. The report describes prompt payment as when at least 90 percent of all bills are paid within the payment period.
The construction sector has the worst record with 65 percent of transactions being classified as late, followed by the retail sector with a 62 percent late payment rate.
The city state's economy contracted 6.5 percent in the second quarter on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, while the government has narrowed the growth forecast for 2011 to 5-6 percent compared to an earlier estimates of 5-7 percent. (Reporting by Harry Suhartono; Editing by Kim Coghill)

26 August 2011

Time = Money

If you are a successful businessman, you will agree with me that time is money. There are two different group of my friends: one is to use time efficiently and one is to wasting time unwisely.

If you are an employee that work under a company, you will be thinking that you are underpaid due to your heavy workload. But think again, will a cleaner or a coffee lady can earn more money than you if they are working for a longer time as compared to you?

Try to think again, why is there someone who can be a successful leader in his team? What makes a guy to climb up corporate ladder to be an CEO? What is the "ingredient" to outperform others?

In my opinion, Time = Money IF AND ONLY IF

 (Processed)
Time --------------------------> Money

You need to process and add value to your time so that the time can be changed to "Money". For example, if you are senior executive, you should try to explore a job scope that only Assistant Manager would do. And try to do it with a lower pay, as you would stay competent as compared to others. Once you learnt everything about senior executive and assistant manager, then move on to be an assistant manager and so on. If you do not like to wait for a long period, you can try to be your own boss. You will never regret of what you did, but only of what you did not do.

Believe me, that you can change "Time" to "Money", once you get the right "ingredient" in the process.

25 August 2011

Do you like free seminar talks?

We would like to conduct a seminar with regards to equity investment on property stocks on 10th September 2011. Please contact bd@jackphanginvestment.com for further detail information.

The topics that we are going to share with you including:

- Malaysia Property Market Overview
- Singapore Property Market Overview
- Things to take note when invest in property stocks
- How to project earnings on property stocks
- Q&A Session

The venue would be in Johor Bahru and Singapore (to be confirmed later). The seats are limited. Please register now by indicating your particulars:

- Name
- Contact Number



大是小,小是大

做大不如做小,因其自视过大
做小好过做大,因其还有变大的可能


Related Posts

Steve Jobs resigns as CEO, named chairman


SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Silicon Valley legend Steve Jobs on Wednesday resigned as chief executive of Apple Inc in a stunning move at the technology giant he co-founded in a garage.
The 55-year-old Apple co-founder and pancreatic cancer survivor has been on medical leave for an undisclosed condition since January 17.
Apple said Steve Jobs has been elected chairman and Tim Cook has been elected CEO.
(Reporting by Poornima Gupta; Editing by Phil Berlowitz)
Sourced from: 
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/Steve-Jobs-resigns-CEO-named-rsg-978669835.html;_ylt=AtbZNvB2DAIwI41OH2qHwJGiwsRG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4MGpxbGsyBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNzdGV2ZWpvYnNyZXM-?x=0

My opinion:
I am quite surprised that Steve Jobs stepped down as CEO and became Chairman this year. However, I am also no surprise that Tim Cook becomes CEO, as he is the best person to succeed from Steve Jobs. I sincerely hope that Apple can continue to grow given good execution power from Tim Cook. Now Apple is going soon to be "POST-STEVE JOBS" Ara.   

24 August 2011

Mah Sing Update - August 2011

Mah Sing recorded 196M selling and booking in its recent property launches according to the source below:

http://www.mahsing.com.my/index.php?option=com_news&id=955&year=2011

The company recorded 78 retail lots in Star Avenue@Damansara, Sungai Buloh value at MYR71.7M. Close to 75% of Bungalows and Semi-Detached Homes in Puchong were also taken up by the buyers.

My view is that Mah Sing could easily hit its original sale target of MYR2.0B to MYR2.5B. Given its strong track record, a premium should be given to it market capital value.

Related Posts:

23 August 2011

Risk Adverse is true, but only to certain extent...

Let me give you example  of risk adversion:

Now you are in a game, that offers you 50% of chance to win 200 and 50% of chance to lose 100 dollar. Are you willing to take the bet?

Now, you are in another game, and the game offers you 50% of chance to win 2000 and 50% of chance to lose 1000 dollar. Are you willing to take the bet?

And now, you are in another game, and the game offers you 50% of chance to win 20,000 and 50% of chance to lose 10,000 dollar. Are you willing to take part in the game?

And now, you are in the final game, and the game offers you 50% of chance to win 200,000 and 50% of chance to lose 100,000 dollar. What is your choice now?

Genting Singapore - Up or Down?

Some friends were asking me about the Genting Singapore. Some data that I copied from elsewhere:

Market Price: SGD1.50

2nd Quarter Result (SGD '000):

Revenue: 728,725
Net Earning: 243,198
Dividend: Nil
Total Debt to Asset Ratio: 45.23%
EPS for 1H 2011: 4.5c

With the above result, hence we will not foresee there is any dividend distributed to the shareholders as they require cash flow to repay debt as well as to maintain a good debt level to avoid any increase of loan interest payable to the banks.

If we annualized the 1H result (becomes 9c), then the P/E for this year is about 1.50 / 0.09 = 16.7

I believe the above P/E is comparable to its peers, the problem now is whether Genting Singapore can maintain its growing pace to achieve a lower P/E in future. However, I believe with so many years experience in managing Casinos and Recreation business, it is just a time for Genting Singapore to grow to another level. Let us wait and see what Management will do to achieve higher growth in revenue as well as the earnings.






22 August 2011

Passion is the Key Factor to Success in Your Investment

I met with a lot of friends who claim that they like investment and they would like to find out what CFA is all about. Normally I would like to encourage them to self-study the CFA course as this course definitely could help them to know more about the investment, such as asset classes, corporate finance, economic, quantitative methods, Financial Reporting Analysis, Equity Analysis, Fixed Income Analysis, Alternative Investment, Private Equity, Portfolio Management and so on. As this course is too comprehensive enough for certain people, hence if you just focus on the area that you are interested in, you might not be able to pass it (I am the example, as I only focus on Equity Investment and that is why I kept on failing my CFA level II exam until I passed it recently).




To my friends, they just wanted to have a better idea on investment, hence they might not be able to finish all three levels, as it is not related to their daily works, and hence they could not get the 'Charter' status even if they pass all three levels examination. But the good thing is, they will not be cheated or fooled by the fund managers / analysts / financial advisers outside and they could invest together with the financial professionals and financial professionals would explain them easily and they would able to avoid the high risk but low return products such as 'Lehman Brothers' structured products.



Of course you will say that passion is not enough to success in investment. But if you have the passion, you will not easily give up whenever you failed to achieve success in the investment. Instead, you will try hard yourself and keep on motivating yourself to achieve a better result as compared to last year.

My Portfolio Asset Allocation

As of today, asset allocation of my personal portfolio is shown as below:

Shares/Equities = 20.27%
Cash = 15.33%
Property = 46.69%
Car = 7.36%
Unit Trusts = 0%
CPF/EPF = 10.36%

My ideal asset allocation is:

Cash = 10.00%
Shares/Equities + CPF/EPF + Unit Trusts = 30.00%
Property = 55.00%
Car = 5.00%

20 August 2011

What is SGX and its Members

SGX is the short form of Singapore Stock Exchange. The website is http://www.sgx.com.


Singapore Exchange (SGX) is the Asian Gateway, connecting investors in search of Asian growth to corporate issuers in search of global capital. SGX offers its clients Asia’s broadest span of equity index derivatives, uniquely centred on Asia’s three largest economies – China, India and Japan. SGX represents the premier access point for managing Asian capital and investment exposure, and is  Asia’s most internationalised exchange with more than 40% of companies listed on SGX originating outside of Singapore.

In addition to offering a fully integrated value chain from trading and clearing, to settlement and depository services, SGX is also Asia’s pioneering central clearinghouse. Headquartered in Asia’s most globalised city, and centred within the AAA strength and stability of Singapore’s island nation, SGX is a peerless Asian counter party for the clearing of financial and commodity products.

SGX currently has market capital value of S$7,115m as of 19 August 2011 and P/E of around 24.2 with P/B 8.64.

The SGX member list can be found here:

http://www.sgx.com/wps/wcm/connect/sgx_en/Misc/regulations/directory+of+members/

Open Letter to the Young Investors

Hi,

Let me share with you one story that happened to me, and I hope that you could benefit from here.

Once upon a time, there was a silly guy wanted to achieve financial freedom. He did not want to work for others for his whole life. He then thought of many ways to do so. First of all, he thought of opening a business. However, he did not have enough capital as well as the domain knowledge to do so. After graduated from the university, he followed the traditional way to work under people, with the hope to learn as much as he could, so that he could open his own firm later. But he still did not have concrete plan to do so.

19 August 2011

Asset Allocation - Key Part in Personal Portfolio Management

Asset Allocation, in my opinion, is the key part in your personal portfolio management. It means that after you have taken notice of your risk & return characteristic, you can now start thinking of constructing a good personal portfolio that suits to you needs, be it a long term needs such as children education purposes or retirement needs, or short term needs such as marriage expenses.

Asset allocation, is the way how you allocate your cash in different asset classes. Let me show you an example:

50% - Stock
40% - Fixed Income / Alternative Investment / Commodities
10% - Cash & Equivalent

Why I just allocate 10% as cash & equivalent? In long term investment, cash is always just a tool for us to park there temporarily as we always knew that Inflation will 'eaten' up all our cash, as the purchasing power reduced, means that we will need to use more cash to purchase a same thing today as compared to few years ago.

50% in Stock/Equities will allow you to always in a 'Balance' mode, means that you will neither be aggressive nor conservative.

Of course, if you more aggressive, you can adjust upward the portion of Stock/Equities in your personal portfolio. If you are more conservative (most girls are conservatives), you can invest in Fixed Income related, such as REITs, Fixed Income ETFs, Gold ETFs, Unit Trusts or even real estate. 

My personal advice to you is to invest in ETFs/REITs/Unit Trusts before you start investing in personal stock, to learn how the global market movement, before you learn about the micro economic (such as analyze a company performance in long term etc).

Related Posts:

    17 August 2011

    Mah Sing 2Q 2011 Result Short Revew

    Mah Sing released its 2Q 2011 result today. You are able to retrieve the result here.

    Factsheet:
    • Mah Sing's shareholders fund close to MYR1.0B for the first time
    • Mah Sing's cash position stand as around MYR803M
    • Net Asset Per Shares is around RM1.17
    • 2Q 2011 Profit is 5.04 Sen (diluted figure)
    • 1H 2011 Profit is 9.89 Sen (diluted figure)
    • Annualized 2011 Profit is 19.78 Sen (1H 2011 * 2)
    • Annualized EPS / NTA (End figure) is 19.78 / (1.17+0.0989-0.076) = 19.78 / 1.19 = around 16.62
    • Expected DPS next year = 19.78 Sen * 40% dividend payout ratio = 10.5c (before tax)
    • Expected Dividend Yield Next Year = 10.5c/245c (MahSing's closing price as of 17 Aug 2011) = 4.29%+-
    • Total Asset = MYR2.86B
    • Net Profit Margin for 2Q 2011 = 10.25%
    • Gross Profit Margin for 2Q 2011 = 27.68%
    • Net Profit Margin for 1H 2011 = 11.64%
    • Gross Profit Margin for 1H2011 = 28.29%
    • Net Profit Margin and Gross Profit Margin dropped due to the reasons: 
      • Take up Rate for The Icon Tun Razak and South Gate is about 20% - 30% (based on estimation from the financial report section A12)
    • The Group has achieved property sales of RM1.24 billion as of 30 June 2011, representing 62% of its full year 2011 sales target of more than RM2 billion. The remarkable sales achieved and timely execution continued to provide steady cashflows and liquidity. The Group’s balance sheets remain healthy with net gearing ratio at 0.21 as at 30 June 2011.
    • Major projects:
      • Icon City - Achieved MYR420M during the 1st launch recently
      • M-Sentral - Strategically located at the former Pekeliling flats area, this joint development presents an opportunity for the Group to participate in one of the largest privatized urban regeneration project in Kuala Lumpur.
    • The Group’s fast turnaround business model and execution track record has made it the most efficient developer amongst industry peers in terms of asset utilization, with asset turnover ratio consistently above 45% for the last 5 years. With unbilled locked in sales and remaining GDV estimated at more than MYR14.5 billion, the Group is confident of strong performance for the immediate year and beyond.

    CFA Level III Result Released

    The CFA Level III exam result was released yesterday. Unfortunately my friend failed in her 1st attempt in Level III exam. But the good news is I can study with her to pass the Level III exam together. :)

    Over the year, I always believe that CFA is a very good course to allow me to learn more about the investment, especially the Alternative Investment, Corporate Finance, Economic, Derivatives and Fixed Incomes etc. I believe that through a lot of hard works in CFA course, you will be able to fully understand how the investment world is working and hence allow you to be mentally prepared in the dynamic world.

    Not only that, I am able to join as a member in CFA Institute Singapore and attend the seminar there to better equip myself in investment terms and terminology. As what CFA Level III requires, now my focus is on the portfolio management skills, such as performing client risk & return analysis, data gathering, asset allocation strategy as well as portfolio re-balancing strategy.

    I am now having about 300K-400K SGD in my portfolio, that includes my long term debt and short term liability. So I am now learning how to utilize the financial leverage given to me to better manage my investment portfolio. My investment portfolio currently includes Equities, Real Estate, Car, EPF/CPF as well as cash & cash equivalents. As equity to my investment portfolio only consist about 20%, I hope that I can increase the portion in it and hopefully can acquire another real-estate (probably commercial shopping lots or Apartment lots in Iskandar Malaysia or Kuala Lumpur) in next three years.

    Anyway, congrats to those who passed level III exam. I would be soon joining you as a CFA charter holder. :)

    Investment Ideas Come From The Things Around You

    Sometime, we do not have many ideas on the investment and we always rely on the people around us, such as colleagues, family, friends, relatives or any person that close to you. However, we should believe in ourselves that we could be a good investor without relying on them.

    As you could figure out, there are actually a lot of investment opportunities outside or just between us. We should try to find out a new business potential that just happen around us and invest in it for long term profit capturing. Let me give you one example:

    Few years ago, when Digi was just about 4-6RM, the stock price didn't move up a lot. After the company changed its dividend policy to make a huge dividend payment to its shareholders, it immediately attracted a lot of institutional investors to invest in it and caused a rocket rise of the shares price. After that, the price keep on moving due to a good marketing strategy as well as competitive pricing strategy adopted by Digi. If you could purchased Digi at lower P/E ratio, now you would be able to enjoy a very high dividend yield.

    I also invested in Mah Sing since year 2005. The company's management set a vision to be the largest property developer in Malaysia in term of Market value. Since then, Mah Sing kept on acquiring land bank and now its land bank GDV is about 14B - 15B that ensuring a 5 to 7 years earning income stream.

    Chart Nexus

    Yesterday I just downloaded the charting tool - Chart Nexus. I am now trying to learn more about the software as I would like to use it for my fundamental analysis and technical analysis purposes.

    If you would like to download the software, kindly click on the banner on top of my website. I will post the banner there for three months as I am keen to explore more features of the software and share with you the features and benefit of using the software later.

    So, you can try to download it or stay tuned to look for my articles about Chart Nexus later.

    16 August 2011

    Foreign worker policy tightened in Singapore

    PM Lee recently announced his policy to tighten the inflow of foreign workers in to Singapore and increase the income level of EP holders, that 2800 for Q pass holder. What is the impact to Singapore in its long term growth and how do we define this?

    As a Singapore Permanent Resident (PR) and equity investor, I definitely hope that Singapore can achieve a sustainable growth in long term. One of my friends who is also a Singapore investor looks negatively on it's long term growth. He mentioned that Singapore previously relied on electric and electronic sector, and now it focus on bio medical as well as recreational sector such as the two casinos in Marina Bay and Sentosa. Singapore can only be an open city to welcome foreign direct investment as well as foreign talents to reduce the cost of production and remain competitive global market.

    I worked in a multi national company - Phillip Capital for around 4 years, and it keeps the cost of operation lower by hiring foreign workers including myself. I do not see this as an issue as there are quite a number of talents who are willing to get a lower pay as compared to Singaporeans and their working attitude is even better as they always appreciate the company give them a chance to work in Singapore.

    So I believe that the policy will definitely increase the competency of foreign workers and we hope that Singapore can achieve a better growth in long term.

    15 August 2011

    Singapore HDB income cap rises

    SINGAPORE, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Singapore will build more low-cost apartments and allow a larger number of citizens to buy homes directly from the government to address concerns about rising property prices, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Sunday.

    Lee said his government will let families with combined monthly incomes of S$10,000 ($8,240) or less buy apartments directly from the Housing and Development Board (HDB) at a cheaper price. The government had previously set a ceiling of S$8,000.

    In my opinion, the developers with BTO and EC will benefit from the above changes as more people can now purchase the BTO and EC. Nonetheless, the impact to private property developers is minimal as majority of the private property buyers are from China, Indonesia and Malaysia.

    Source from: http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/Singapore-sell-lower-cost-rsg-1433948294.html?x=0

    What is the next direction after the U.S. Market Crash Last Week?

    In my humble opinion, the market movement will be always volatile, be it in uptrend or downtrend. Western countries are now fighting for the sovereign debt crisis and facing a further drop in currency value, such as U.S. dollar and Euro. In traditional ways, we could see a negative correlation in between Equities and Fix Incomes. However, due to the popularity of alternative investments and derivatives market, we can see that the negative correlation in between Equities and Gold are now obvious as compared to equities and fix incomes.

    We do foresee that the current derivatives market are getting more excited as many speculators are returning to the market after last week. So, my prediction or guess is that, this week is going to be more stable as compared to last week. For those investors who wishes to hold for long term, please be prepared for the volatility. I also just realized that most of the speculators are happy with the volatility and trying to make some profit from there.

    So, good luck to all of you. I will keep on posting my updates to you guys.

    14 August 2011

    Public Transport System Comparison in between Penang, Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur

    I have been going to three cities in a row in a week. What I found from the three cities are those are cities that attract many foreign travelers to come and visit them. Penang is well known for its food and heritage, Bangkok is the hub for foreigners to go to south east countries such as Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam where Kuala Lumpur is the main airplane terminal hub for AirAsia, the largest Asia Low Cost Carrier company.

    Penang, a place that I love so much for its food and heritage, is now under opposition party control, as I can see the improvement in public transport system. I just spent about 2.70 MYR to reach KOMTAR in George Town from Penang International Airport in Bayan Lepas. I also only spent about 1.40 MYR to reach Gurney Drive, a famous hawker center as well as the shopping area (Gurney Plaza & G-Hotel are also at that area). However, without a train system, I cannot really know the exact time that I would need to spend from one point to another.

    Bangkok has a very good transportation system. I just spent about 45 Baht from Bangkok Suvarnabhumi Airport to Phraya Thai BTS station and took the BTS to my hostel stationed at Sala Daeng within 1.25 hour. I can easily connect to other attractions such as National Stadium, MBK Shoping Center, Art Center, Musuem, Siam Paragon Mall and other places via the public transport system such as Bus, BTS, MRT, Boat, Taxi, and 'Dut Dut' car.

    13 August 2011

    Chip Eng Seng 1H Report Short Review

    Source from: http://www.chipengseng.com/administration/NewsReports/4bcc1c0b-b943-486c-98d1-f452fd1757d5_CES_2Q2011_Press_Release_11August2011.pdf

    Chip Eng Seng posted an 14% lower earning as compared to last quarter. The difference of the result could be mainly due to the different financial reporting standard that CES adopted INT FRS 115 under which revenue and related expenses from overseas sales of development units and Singapore residential units
    sold under the DBSS (“Design, Build and Sell Scheme”) and EC (“Executive Condominium”)
    will be recognised when the development units are delivered to the purchasers. This new
    accounting standard will result in profit recognition for development projects not in tandem
    with the construction progress, thus creating more volatility in the Group’s earnings.

    Progress:

    As of 30 June 2011, the Group has $147.5 million in cash and cash equivalents, up from
    $133.6 million previously. This was primarily attributed to dividend income from its joint
    ventures upon the TOP of three joint development projects, namely The Parc Condominium,
    CityVista Residences and Grange Infinite.

    The Group’s net debt/equity ratio was 0.72 as at 30 June 2011 as compared to 0.47 as at 31
    December 2010. The increase was due to bank borrowings taken to finance the purchase of
    land for property development in Singapore and Australia.

    12 August 2011

    Arbitrage - another way of arbitraging

    For my understanding, arbitrage is a way to make a profit by exchanging two or three different asset classes or investment products without risk. The risk-free arbitrage for me is to make a decent profit from a market without a worry.

    Let me give you example-
    Says you are now want to purchase the mother shares of 2.10 dollars. But you are given a chance to purchase a warrant with price at 1.00 and you can convert to it three years later with the price of 1.00 dollar and the total cost for you to convert is 2.00 dollar. So now, you can sell the mother shares and buy the warrant. By keep continue to doing so, you will be able to get an arbitrage profit from here.

    Another way of sell high buy low is to sell the shares at higher price when the market is going down and purchase it back at Lower price later. Nonetheless it is a bit like a gambling as we couldn't tell how the direction is going to be.

    Chip Eng Seng's Net Profit drop 14%

    Chip Eng Seng's Q2 profit dropped 14% as compared to last quarter. Reasons are the lack of contribution from the construction as well as property development. As I mentioned earlier, we should classify CES as property developer instead of construction company as the portion of the property development and the focus for CES are already in property development, especially after the executive chairman's daughter came back from Australia to help his father on his property development division.

    As I mentioned earlier too, Mr. Kaw from Singapore is now trying his best to tame down the speculation of Singapore Property at this moment. However, I believe that he will loosen his housing policy after we see a slower growth in Singapore as well as the uncertainty of global economy in later stage.

    Singapore private property, largely contributed by the foreigners, especially from three countries, namely China, Malaysia and Indonesia. As long as the economy of the three countries are doing well, then I believe that there is not a sharp drop in property price or market sentiment as this moment. I do believe that the selling progress for the luxury condo will be a bit slow down due to the 2nd home loan that only allows you to take up to 60%/70% of the property value and some of the home buyers are actually wanted to sell their current property and upgrade to a bigger size condo. Nonetheless, I sincerely hope that Singapore property can grow in a stable pace, given its global financial hub status and the stable political and strategic location in the Asia Pacific region.

    10 August 2011

    Bangkok Fast Food Restaurant

    I bought a daily pass that costs me 120Baht (approximately US$4). So far I just tried out the KFC (89 Baht per set meal), Starbuck (120Baht for small caramel) and outside food 10Baht. I will try it out more and share with you on this.

    Bangkok bus transport system

    Now I am heading to Bangkok Airport after a decent stay with YHA Bangkok Airport via Bus - 553.

    I am quite happy that I can take a bus to airport as I do not really understand Thai language and I have to show my money to the bus driver assistant and let her to take the money from me. I realized that the bus fares has risen from 20Baht to 22Baht. But it is still cheap as compared to taking taxi to airport. Yesterday I took a 5-10mins taxi after 12am and it costed me about 120Baht!

    As now I am going to another hostel - smile society in city area, I am now quite excited as I do it my own although it wasted a lot of time here. But I just want to have a relax tour.

    09 August 2011

    KL Sentral

    I am now at KL sentral. As compared to last few years, now KLIA is surrounded by a lot of high rise buildings. I believe that it can be another attractions to travelers. However, it is not very convenience to go from here to LCCT as compared to KLIA, as we have to take an hour bus to arrive LCCT.

    I hope that I am able to arrive LCCT by 9:00pm after having dinner with friend here. Nonetheless, I found that there a lot of free wifi connection in KL sentral, it is very convenience to a traveler for me to whatsapp with friends and relatives. I can also see counter promoting YES wimax services.

    KL sentral is bounded to be the hub for all the transports, such as LRT, MRT, KTM, Monorails, Bus, KLIA express and taxi. So you will not have any problems reaching here. I also hope that there will be more variety of food here, as most of the restaurants here are fast food restaurants.

    Nonetheless, I will give KL Sentral 4 stars as I am able to get any services that I need here, except the AirAsia counter (I couldn't find it here).

    Below is the picture I took from Macdonald in KL





    Location:Jalan Stesyen Sentral,Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia

    08 August 2011

    My Projection on Mah Sing's Earning for the next 2-3 years (Part 1)

    I would like to test my financial knowledge on how to project company earnings for foreseeable earnings. As most of the investors know, the purpose of we purchase the company's stock is due to the outlook of the company itself. If the market oulook changes, we might change our mind to invest more or liquidate our shares in the company. Of course, some of us would speculate on the rise of the earnings after a company announced a major changes on its daily operations or business development plan.

    So, now I would to like test my projection on Mah Sing's Earning for the next 2-3 years given current market condition.

    Ok, let's move on to the steps on projecting Mah Sing's earning in the next few years. First we will look at the recent business movement by Mah Sing. So far the management plan to acquire the land with approximately RM7.0B to RM12.0B Gross Development Value. Now, let's say Mah Sing complete 50% of its target (for example RM3.5B) and then Mah Sing's total GDV would be around RM15B to RM16B.

    As Mah Sing's management always mention that they would like to complete the entire project within 5 - 7 years lifespan, then we can roughly (not exactly) say that the average project launched for the next few years could be RM16B/6 years = RM2.67B.

    From there we would say that, as of now, average yearly project launched by Mah Sing's management would be approximately RM2.67B given the RM16B GDV land bank. Ok, What's Next?

    We should also think of the take up rate of Mah Sing's overall projects. From history records, we could find that Mah Sing able to achieve around 90% of the take up rate, so the yearly sales would be about RM2.67B *  90% = around RM2.4B. So, what I can foresee is that, Mah Sing is able to achieve RM2.4B sales by next year.

    However, for Mah Sing's projects, it normally takes 2 years to complete the landed projects and 3 years to complete the high rise projects, hence we could say that it takes about 2.5 years in average to 'realize' its RM2.4B sales.

    If you have an excel file spreadsheet, you can even play around the grow rate of the revenue, net profit margin as well as the total of outstanding shareholder funds as we already knew the Mah Sing already issued a number of convertible bonds that would be converted to ordinary shares within a 7 years lifespan. Ok, what's next?

    After we added on the net profit for next few years, then we would able to get a final figures on the projection of Mah Sing. As what I 'guessed', net profit margin for the next few years would increased as the lease agreement of South Gate and the Icon Tun Razak would complete for the following coming years.

    To Be Continue...

    P/S: Above statements are all my diary to keep me to check my homework on Stock Investment. Please always refer to your investment adviser before making any investment decision.

    Should we hold our stock when the market crashes?

    I still remembered that when the market crashed on year 2008, many people were losing their money buy cutting losses and ran away from the market. Malaysia KLCI was about 1400 before the market crashed and dropped until as low as 8++ points. I was on the vacation on October 2008 and there was a market crash at that time. I still remembered that I was so excited the market was crashing and I advised my parents to buy the warrant with 4-5 years lifespan with the good mother company. 

    3 years later, if we do not do anything but just hold the stock that we hold since the market crashed, we could easily get a 100% return. As what I mentioned earlier, it is always a good time to buy when the bear market comes and good time to sell when bull market comes.

    I hope that everyone of us can get some lesson from the market movement and adjust your portfolio when market changes it direction from long term perpective. I always keep on emphasizing on the 'Buy Low' & 'Sell High' strategy.

    Take care everyone. :)


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    4 Days 3 Nights Trip - (KL, Bangkok & Penang)

    I will be going to KL, Bangkok and Penang this week for my 1st week of vacation. I have not thought of going to else where as I have to keep fit in order to make my body and mindset more healthy. As this is my first time to go to Bangkok and stay with with others in a hostel in Bangkok, I hope that I can make friends with those from other countries and learn how to make my home stay house more creative.

    My target of my home stay is to make the guests feel like their house. The slogan that I copied from others are "Welcome as Guest, Feel as Family". Hopefully I can turn around my new house to be positive cash flow property and make sure that it will not be a financial burden to me. 

    I met up with a property renovator last week. So I will keep in touch with her on the renovation matter and share with you later on that.


    P/S: I shall with you on the budgeting on my trip to 3 places in other post.

    06 August 2011

    Reached 30k Pageviews Within 5 Months

    Thanks for your support to make me to achieve 30k Pageviews within 5 months. I will share with you more on the homework that I did for stock selection and the reasons why I want to buy or sell on the particular stock. So, stay tuned...

    05 August 2011

    Investment is a lonely journey

    Most of the time we have to stand for the loneliness during the investment journey. As there are buyers and sellers in the market, we always have to have our own judgement in making the investment decision. Sometime you made a good decision and sometime you did not. Nonetheless, we should always keep our faith and hope to achieve a good result after a certain period.

    Remember to always set aside a certain amount for your emergency fund. It is similar to the petrol that you reserved on the car for emergency purposes. It is very crucial especially when you are in the long journey. Try to have a map or gps with you so that you will not loss in the journey.

    Location:Singapore

    My thought on U.S market

    U.S. Market was crashing last night as expected after U.S. Congress increased the ceiling of the U.S. Debt Level that everyone worried about the recession to come again.

    Singapore showed a slow down on GDP growth as well in last quarter report. I do expect that there will be another volatility in the stock market as fear is coming.

    What about the real estate market in Singapore? As what I mentioned in the previous posts, Mr. Kaw will try his best to increase possible supply as well as reduce the possible demand to tame down the real estate market. As a studio by Chip Eng Seng in Simei can reach near to 700K and almost sold off, I really feel that the current real estate market is for those locals looking for upgrading their home and not the young professionals who are in the marriage age.

    Likewise in Malaysia, Mah Sing joint venture with another developer to develop the property in Titiwangsa, KL. I hooe that Mah Sing can quickly hit e target of GDV of 19B soon. Nonetheless, I believe that the property price will comes down in near future as we do not have a strong middle class to support all the property rise in city area.

    My conclusion is: U.S. Market crash has little impact to real estate market in Singapore and Malaysia. However in my opinion, the price rise in these area will not last forever. For the net buyer, please be patience to wait for the worst time to come.

    Location:Singapore

    04 August 2011

    Focus on what you do best

    Thank you for reading my posts as I am writing the posts quite aggressively recently. What I would like to share with you is a story:

    A and B are young guys who are very enthusiastic in investing. They are looking ways to learn investing. So they tried many ways to improve themselves in the investing skills. A is a very hardworking guy and he is also very smart and learn a lot of techniques of investing, such as Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis. B was average guy as his knowledge was very restricted to his working area - that was a construction sector.

    Portfolio Rebalancing in Long Term Investment

    First of all, we must believe that we can make a profit in the market, and that is the reason why we are still in the market for a long term period. It does not matter whether you have any long or short position in the market, as long as you are still monitoring the market.

    The portfolio rebalancing means to re-balance your asset allocation percentage that you have set earlier on. For example, say you have set aside 50% in Blue Chip Stock, 40% in Value Stock, 10% in Growth Stock. Other than that, you also set aside 50% in Cash and 50% in Stock. So the asset allocation portion would be like this:
    • 50% in Cash
    • 25% in Blue Chip Stock
    • 20% in Value Stock
    • 5% in Growth Stock

    03 August 2011

    A Diagram that I think Portfolio Rebalancing Should be Like

    When we set a target return, then we normally form up a risk & return characteristic for the portfolio and look for the optimum risk & return. In individual investor point of view, the longer time horizon that we have, the higher possible return we should seek to. In Mean Reversion Theory, as long as the you stay in the investment, your return should be revert back to the mean level of the entire market. It is true for the majority of the investors, so if we are 'average investor', then we should make use of the theory above and try to perform a good portfolio rebalancing strategy. You can look at the graph below:

     

    Call out A: The long term Required Return. The steeper the line is, the more volatile it could be.

    My Rough Calculation on recent Mah Sing's Land Acquisition in KL

    Total Cost: RM63.90M
    Total GDV (Mah Sing Portion): RM900M * 60% = RM540M

    Expected Take Up Rate = 90%
    Total Revenue = 486M
    Expected Gross Profit Margin = 25%
    Expected Gross Profit = 121.5M
    Expected Net Profit Margin = 15%
    Expected Net Profit = 72.9M
    Expected Completion Time = 5 years
    Average Profit for each year = 14.58M
    Average EPS for each year (expected average number of shares outstanding = 850M) = 1.7sen

    It is not a big project to Mah Sing, given the current market value of Mah Sing of approximately RM1.9B - RM2.0B now. However, I sincerely hope that Mah Sing can keep its promise to increase current land bank to around 19B to 20B.

    P/S: Please consult your investment adviser before making any investment decision.

    Location:Stamford Rd,,Singapore

    02 August 2011

    Mah Sing's Acquisition In Progress

    PROPOSED JOINT DEVELOPMENT OF A PARCEL OF PRIME LAND ALONG JALAN TUN RAZAK, KUALA LUMPUR MEASURING APPROXIMATELY 4.08 ACRES (WHICH FORMS PART OF THE APPROXIMATELY RM9 BILLION 58-ACRE RIVERSIDE URBAN REGENERATION PROJECT), BY MAH SING’S WHOLLY-OWNED SUBSIDIARY, GRAND PAVILION DEVELOPMENT SDN BHD WITH ASIE SDN BHD AND USAHA NUSANTARA SDN BHD



    You can see the Map here:







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    What is your desire retired age range?

    In an online survey done recently in Jack Phang Investment Group, more than 50% of the voters would like to retire at the age 50 or below. The pool of the voters are in the age of 20s and 30s. In another survey, most of the voters require more than 500K and above to enjoy the retired life. Let us do some calculation on this:

    Let's say you are 30 year old, and you are Single (without financial burden) and you require 500K for you to retired at the age of 50. From 30 years old to accumulate your wealth to 500K until the age of 50, you have about 20 years to do so, or in another word, you can save 25K a year until 50 years old. If you have a lifespan until age of 80, then you have 30 years to rely on 500K, means that the yearly expense for you is probably 16.7K or 1,389 a month. In today context, you are hardly to survive if you only have about 1.4K to spend a month, not to mention 20 years later. Inflation will eat up your purchasing power and you could probably have less than 1K to spend after deducting the inflation affect. Hence, my suggestion to you is to have at least 3M retirement fund.

    Progress on the Iskandar Malaysia Train System

    From the source from: http://news.omy.sg/News/World%2BNews/Story/OMYStory201107311611-264041.html

    Iskandar Malaysia will implement its railway transit system by 2018. The train terminal is expected in Kempas, with 5 connection to it, namely Nusajaya, Ulu Tiram, Pasir Gudang, Kulaijaya & Senai Airport.

    Salary is the most important thing for graduates

    I refer to the source: http://technorati.com/business/article/salary-is-the-most-important-thing/

    No doubt, I was also think of the high salary after I graduated from University. Sadly to say that you won't get a good pay unless you have a skill set that fulfill your employer's requirement. Hence, as an employer, they will look at your skill set as well as your organizational skill so that you could be one part of the potential management levels one day later. 

    My advice to the graduates is that, do not be afraid to do more of what your supervisor asked you to do, as you would be able to learn more than what others can. From there, you can build your reputation as well as experience in the field you are working in.

    Below are some of the contents that I copied from source:

    01 August 2011

    A visit to My Manhatten @ Simei Site by Chip Eng Seng

    I payed a visit to My Manhatten @ Semei recently and met the property agent there. According to the Property Agent, the sales for the 1-bedroom were running very fast, however the overall take-up rate for the whole project was about 35%. As estimated TOP would be in the year of December 2014, the property agent mentioned that the property developer - Chip Eng Seng normally will finish the project earlier than what it planned. To me, it is similar to the fast asset turnover model applied by Mah Sing, one of the top property developers in Malaysia.

    My opinion is that this project is quite well as it is located just 1 minute from Simei MRT station so it has some premium to it as compared to other project in the Island. As it is near to MRT station, what I can expect is the noisiness from the MRT. I experience this before when I stayed in another area that closed to MRT track. From my experience, I have to spend 1 month time to get used to the MRT noise.

    Other than that, the facilities there are quite alright, that you will be experiencing the gym room, swimming pools, high quality man-work done to the floor, and I like the service provided by the property agent, as he mentioned that he will help me to find another project as my budget cannot meet the lowest price of the units sold over there. It is started from 69xK onwards.


    Behavioral Finance

    Behavioral Finance is one of the subjects in CFA level III course. Its objective is to highlight to us about the imperfection of the traditional investment theory - that it assumes that everyone receive same and complete information and react to achieve the maximum return given the same risk tolerance level. It mentions that everyone has his/her different opinion on the market movement and has the constraint to react to the new information given the restricted period.

    Let me give you the example of why it is not perfect in the market. There are thousand of investors in the market to seek for the maximum return in different time horizon. For speculator, they always seek for the highest return in shortest period, but for investors, they always look at the highest return for a longer time frame. Of course, there are also some investors/speculators react nothing to the new information as they may not receive the new information on time or they do not have any clue on the new information given to the public. It can be explained by the volatility of the market due to different interpretation of different people in the same market.


    Can Gold Replaces USD as the main Foreign Currency Reserve Fund?

    While we are waiting lawmakers in U.S. to approve the increment of ceiling of the U.S. Debt Level, it is an argument from the public to replace USD with the Gold. Currently the gold price in U.S. stood as U$1,600.00 and above. I believe that while governments from other countries are still seeking for alternative investments to reduce its reliance on USD, we cannot deny that USD is still the best (or in another word, the ONLY) foreign currency that have the most liquidity in the world as compared to other currencies / alternative investments. If the government keep on buying Gold as foreign currency reserve fund, then it will drives gold price up and ultimately create a bubble in the gold market, which we do not like to see.

    However, in my humble opinion, gold cannot replace USD as the main Foreign Currency Reserve Fund, but it will be the supplement to the USD as the correlation is somehow very low if not negative to each others. In this period of time, there is still no strong evidence to tell us that Gold can replace USD as the main Foreign Currency Reserve Fund, however the FOREX market will remain unstable until the lawmakers approve the above increment of ceiling of debt level.


    Quote from Reuters:


    (Reuters) - Gold fell more than 1 percent on Monday as U.S. lawmakers neared an agreement to raise the country's debt ceiling.
    The most-active U.S. gold futures fell more than 1 percent to $1,614 an ounce and spot gold was down 0.9 percent at $1,611.89, off a low of $1,606.79.
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